Gameweek 1 gave me just enough information to start doubting half my team, but not quite enough information to justify actually changing it.
Which, when you put it like that, is probably exactly how the first week of FPL is supposed to work. One player hauls, another blanks, someone you've never really considered suddenly looks like the best player in the league.
I have spent a fair amount of this week looking at Gonzalo, Barry and Emersonn. All three have had moments where I have thought, "Actually, maybe I should bring them in."
None of the three felt completely ridiculous. Which, honestly, probably made the decision harder. The problem is that every time I went back through the squad, I ended up asking myself the same question.
Do I actually need to make the transfer?
And the answer, after far too much thinking, is probably no.
The transfers I nearly made
This is where I have spent most of my time this week.
I have opened the transfer page more times than I care to admit, moved players around, looked at prices, looked at fixtures, changed my mind and then gone back to the original idea.
Gonzalo, Barry and Emersonn were the three names I kept coming back to.
I could make a case for all three. The problem wasn't finding reasons to bring them in. The problem was finding a good enough reason to use my free transfer after just one Gameweek.
Gonzalo was probably the transfer I came closest to making. His Gameweek 1 performance was enough to make me properly look at him rather than just scroll past his name.
Once I started comparing him with the players already in my squad, the temptation got stronger. I could see why people would want him, and I could certainly talk myself into doing the move.
But then I started wondering whether I was bringing him in because I genuinely wanted him for the next few weeks, or because I had just watched one good Gameweek and didn't want to miss out.
That was enough to make me stop.
Barry was a different kind of temptation.
The price immediately made me interested because a cheaper option can change what you can do elsewhere in the squad. And once I started thinking about that, I found myself moving money around in my head.
Then one potential Barry move turned into another change, which turned into another change, and suddenly I was basically rebuilding the entire squad just to get one player in.
That probably wasn't the sign I was looking for.
Emersonn was probably the one who kept sneaking back into the conversation.
I wasn't looking at him thinking, "I absolutely have to own this player." It was more a case of thinking, "Could I make this work?"
And every time I thought I had talked myself out of the move, I found another reason to look at him again.
Which is usually the point where I know I need to stop looking at the transfer page before I do something purely because I've spent too long staring at it.
After going round in circles with all three, I eventually decided that maybe I don't need to decide yet.
That's probably the hardest part of FPL for me. Once I start looking at transfers, I want to do something. Leaving a player alone feels like I'm missing an opportunity, even when there isn't really a reason to make the move.
I don't want to throw away a free transfer just because I have become bored with my own squad.
So Gonzalo, Barry and Emersonn are staying on the watchlist for now.
No transfer.
Roll it.
Gonzalo, Barry and Emersonn remain interesting, but none have given me enough reason to use the transfer after only one Gameweek. For once, I'm going to leave the button alone.
Then came the goalkeeper decision.
The goalkeeper decision was probably more difficult than it should have been because Kelleher actually outscored Raya in Gameweek 1.
Kelleher finished with seven points, while Raya returned six. Kelleher also ranks sixth among goalkeepers for ICT Index, while Raya sits 19th.
So yes, I did spend some time wondering whether I had somehow picked the wrong goalkeeper. Then I looked at the fixture.
Kelleher faces Leeds, while I already have Leeds players elsewhere in the squad. Wilson and Calvert-Lewin are both involved in that fixture from my side.
And that's where my head started hurting again.
If Leeds score, I could benefit from my attacking players while losing the goalkeeper clean-sheet points. If Kelleher keeps a clean sheet, I'm then sitting there hoping my own Leeds players don't ruin it.
Obviously both things can happen. FPL doesn't care about my carefully planned little conflicts - I just don't particularly fancy giving myself another reason to spend 90 minutes arguing with myself.
Raya
6 pts Aston Villa (A) 38.3% selectedKelleher
7 pts Leeds (A) 6.5% selectedSo despite Kelleher scoring more last week, Raya starts. Having Kelleher in goal while hoping my Leeds attackers do well feels like a situation I don't really need to create for myself.
The defence has already changed.
There is one important difference from the original squad heading into Gameweek 2.
Tarkowski has replaced Gabriel.
Guéhi is the obvious bright spot after Gameweek 1. He returned 10 points and ranks fourth among defenders for ICT Index. His Threat ranking of seventh is another reason I don't feel like I need to do anything with him.
I'd rather have seen more than two points from Virgil. But with Forest next up, one Gameweek isn't enough for me to decide that the pick was a mistake.
For now, I'm leaving the three defenders alone.
The defence has already had its change, and I'm not going to make another one just because Virgil didn't give me the score I wanted in the opening week.
Midfield is where I started overthinking again.
Semenyo's two points from Gameweek 1 aren't exactly what I was hoping for.
But then I looked at the numbers behind the score and started talking myself into keeping him again. He ranks 14th among midfielders for Threat and 46th for ICT Index. Those numbers aren't screaming "big mistake" after one Gameweek.
Rice returned three points and stays in the team, while Wilson also scored three. Wilson's Creativity ranking gives me another reason to keep him, especially when I look at the fixtures ahead.
Then there is Le Fée. He scored two points in Gameweek 1, but Anderson's fitness doubt meant I moved Anderson out of the starting XI and put Le Fée in.
There isn't a grand plan behind that. Anderson was a doubt, Le Fée was available, and I had to pick somebody. Sometimes FPL really is that simple.
And then Manchester City kicked off.
And this is where my lovely little plan started to look rather stupid.
Anderson started.
Yes - the player I had moved to the bench because I was worried about his fitness was named in the starting XI.
Manchester City kicked off, the team news came through, and there he was.
Starting.
And where had I put him?
Third on my bench.
The frustrating part is that I didn't actually want Anderson out of the team. The fitness doubt was the reason for the benching. So now I get to spend the game wondering whether I have just left points sitting there while wondering why on earth I put him third.
The forwards are staying put.
João Pedro is probably the easiest decision in the entire team.
João Pedro
11 pointsAnd after not giving him the captaincy in Gameweek 1, I'm now willing to give him the armband.
Thiago is the frustrating one - he managed just one point in Gameweek 1 despite posting 1.08 xGI. That's exactly the sort of return that makes you want to start looking at replacements immediately.
But then I look at the rest of the numbers. Thiago ranks 20th for Influence, 19th for Creativity and 21st for Threat among forwards. So I'm not throwing him out... yet.
Calvert-Lewin is another player who only returned one point. His Threat ranking of 15th and ICT Index ranking of 25th give me enough reason to wait before deciding that I need to make a change.
The points aren't there yet, but I'm giving him another chance.
Gameweek 2 XI
So after all of the transfer thoughts, goalkeeper debates, fitness doubts and general FPL overthinking, the starting XI has actually changed surprisingly little.
Tarkowski comes in for Gabriel, Le Fée comes in for Anderson, and João Pedro takes the captaincy.
Apart from those changes, I'm giving the squad another chance.
There doesn't seem to be enough evidence after one Gameweek to completely rewrite everything, and I'd rather have two transfers available next week than use one now because I've convinced myself somebody is suddenly essential.
So, what have I actually changed?
The funny thing is that I started the week thinking I had several problems to solve, when I really didn't have any.
João Pedro looks good. Guéhi looks good. Semenyo's underlying numbers are still interesting. Thiago deserves another week, and Calvert-Lewin has enough attacking numbers for me to wait.
The one thing I probably should have done differently was check the Manchester City team news before putting Anderson third on the bench.
But apparently we learn from our mistakes.
Hopefully.
See you after Gameweek 2, when we find out whether patience was sensible or an absolutely terrible mistake.